Market Share Simulation
Christensen
Associates can use the estimates from choice-based conjoint surveys to develop
easy-to-use market share simulation models. We have found that these models provide
the easiest and clearest means of understanding the survey responses and their
implications for the issue at hand.
A
market share simulation model can serve as a tool to help you easily develop your
own “what-if” scenarios, allowing you to quickly determine the market share implications
of each scenario. You can also use this simulation model to develop profit-maximizing
strategies by adding revenue and cost data to the model's input.
Christensen
Associates has extensive experience with developing stand-alone software applications
and Excel spreadsheet models. We developed the software for EPRI’s ShareWars Market
Share Simulator.
This
is a stand-alone Visual Basic program designed to predict market shares using
preferences estimated from a large national sample of electricity customers. The
model contains an intuitive and attractive interface that allows the user to define
product offers as combinations of a wide range of product and provider attributes.
The analyst can offer these products to customer segments that are user-defined
from a number of demographic and "firmographic" characteristics.
The
results of each ShareWars simulation are displayed in graphs and tables. The software
was built to accommodate estimates obtained through mixed logit and/or hierarchical
Bayes procedures, which account for the diversity of customer preferences in the
population. You can see images of the ShareWars Market Share Simulator by clicking
on the thumbnail graphics distributed throughout this text.
Christensen
Associates has also developed market share simulation models in Excel spreadsheets.
These models are very flexible and are less costly to create than stand-alone
software models. For an example of an Excel-based model, please follow
this link. The basic format presented in the
link can be customized to address your project's issues. Provided that the appropriate
information is available, we can include revenue and profit forecasts in our Excel-based
models.
For more information, contact Dan Hansen.
©2007 Laurits R. Christensen Associates